I think that Romney and Santorum thought that in order to
win the Republican vote, they needed to have beliefs that are exactly the
opposite of the Democratic party. Since Obama made a clear stance on higher education,
these Republican candidates were so used to taking a stance in the opposite direction,
and in turn, the decision was made using system one thinking.
However, I don’t
think that this was a rational decision because they didn’t seem to consider
the possible options and consequences of each option. These candidates failed
to realize that federal aid to education is supported by both political parties. In order
to win the Republican vote, both candidates should have determined their
options (for a stance on higher education) and possible outcomes for each
(levels of voter support). Then they should assign values and probabilities to
each outcome, calculate the expected value of each option and then determine
which option to choose based on the highest expected value. I think that if
they would have went through a rational decision making process, they would
have determined that taking a different stance on higher education would have
been the better decision.
I like your thinking! Although it probably is not such as simple solution as drawing a decision tree because there are so many factors weighing on their decisions of which side to campaign on. But, from what the article stated I can see why you said what you did. If there was some way to have such a complex decision tree then I think that Obama is rationally thinking straight on staying on the side of higher education, whereas Romney and Santorum might take a hit and reduce their chances of winning because of the sides they are on. But, all we can do now is wait and see! This race should be interesting and I think there will be a few surprises as with every race.
ReplyDeleteI really think that if you were to put this information into a decision tree and calculate the expected values that it would be a very well organized with the information given. Although I can say that I agree with the comment above and think that there are any other factors that will also tie in with the candidates decisions. I think system 2 thinking would have been a good choice in making a decision on whether or not to provided government funding for higher education because it's off of experience. This would have allowed to candidates to look at Obama's performance on higher education and see what differences the people who benefit from this would like to see happen.
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