Cognitive Biases

Cognitive biases are present in our daily lives. Last Thursday my boyfriend came to Shippensburg to visit me. We decided that we would go out to eat with two other couples. When we were deciding where we wanted to go, he said that he didn't want to go to a hibachi restaurant because we ate there last time. We then considered italian and seafood restaurants, but we would have to travel further and possibly make reservations. We considered going to Italian Village becuase its BYOB and located between Shippensburg and Chambersburg. We decided against this because we dind't know how well they could handle a group of 6. Eventually, we decided that the Shippensburg hibachi restaurant would be best afterall. When I texted our friends to tell them the place and time, I suffered from primacy effect remembering that we weren't doing hibachi because we did that last time, and I told them 6:30 at Italian Village. When I read the sent text to my boyfriend he caught the mistake and I quickly had to call everyone and correct my mistake. My memory was clouded by the information presented earlier (that we weren't going for hibachi because we did that last time).

On our way to the hibachi restaurant, a car from the other lane swirved and almost hit our car. My boyfriend said, "Of course, it's a woman driver." This incident confirmed his bias thinking that women are bad drivers. To him, this is an emotionally charged issue because he has been in numerous car accidents with women where they are at fault, and this incident confirmed his prior beliefs.

As we got out of the car and walked toward the door of the restaurant I said, "Last time we were here, I saw a lot of people that I know from work. I bet I'll see people from work again." When I said this, I suffered from the availability heuristic, presumed assumptions. I have overestimated the probability that these two events will co-occur again.

Politics and Decision Making

I think that Romney and Santorum thought that in order to win the Republican vote, they needed to have beliefs that are exactly the opposite of the Democratic party. Since Obama made a clear stance on higher education, these Republican candidates were so used to taking a stance in the opposite direction, and in turn, the decision was made using system one thinking. 

However, I don’t think that this was a rational decision because they didn’t seem to consider the possible options and consequences of each option. These candidates failed to realize that federal aid to education is supported by both political parties. In order to win the Republican vote, both candidates should have determined their options (for a stance on higher education) and possible outcomes for each (levels of voter support). Then they should assign values and probabilities to each outcome, calculate the expected value of each option and then determine which option to choose based on the highest expected value. I think that if they would have went through a rational decision making process, they would have determined that taking a different stance on higher education would have been the better decision.

Afghan War (redone)

As far as casualties, the expected value of the USA leaving Afghanistan is higher than the expected value of the USA staying in Afghanistan. Therefore, according to my analysis and perceived values and probabilities, it would be more beneficial for the USA to leave Afghanistan.

Afghan War

As far as economic costs, the expected value of the USA leaving Afghanistan is higher than the expected value of the USA staying in Afghanistan. Therefore, according to my analysis and perceived values and probabilities, it would be more beneficial for the USA to leave Afghanistan.

What Career Should I Choose?

I decided to use the decision tree to help me decide which career to choose. I competed the decision tree based on salary because salary is a monetary value. Also, relatively accurate salary figures are easily researched.

Based on the expected value, the Commercial Real Estate Appraiser career would be the best choice.
Source: www.salary.com

Incentives and Motivation

In five to ten years I see myself as a loan officer working for a bank or a private company. At this future point I hope to be living comfortably and I suspect that economic incentives will no longer be as motivating as they currently are to me as a college student.

I want to work for an organization that views their employees as a source of a competitive advantage. That way, the employees would be valued, trusted and empowered. This type of organization would naturally incentivize its employees by giving them autonomy. I think autonomy is an important motivator because I like to make my own decisions based on my judgment of what is best. I don’t want to have to break out the big book of rules every time a problem arises.

I think another incentive that would motivate me is the gratification I would feel after I know that I helped someone go through the process of buying their first home, for example. Also, the pride of mastery would be motivating. I want to be the helpful person that makes the loan process easy for any customer to understand. This would make me feel respected and prideful.

Looking at Maslow’s theory of needs, I think once the safety needs are met, economic incentives no longer motivate effectively. Other incentives need to be introduced to motivate employees. Some examples include: autonomy, mastery, and emotional commitment to work.

Source:

http://www.EnvisionSoftware.com/articles/Maslows_Needs_Hierarchy.html#Physiological_Needs

The Organizational Kid

Golden Nugget: Motivation

I think that the Princeton University students live this lifestyle because they have successful, wealthy parents. They understand what it takes to get to that level of success and they see it as attainable. As Brooks says, “Opportunity lures them.” Also, these students are very goal oriented. They see the light at the end of the tunnel. They are willing to give up a few hours of sleep each night, participate in a limited amount of dating, and schedule appointments to chat with their friends if it means accomplishing their goals.

Living the nonstop lifestyles that they do comes as second nature. Their parents have probably set high standards and expectations for them from a young age. After all, these students were apart of what Brooks describes as the big back pack era in elementary school. He suggests that the big backpack era was a response to A Nation at Risk where Secretary of Education, Terrel Bell criticizes American schools’ loose curriculum lack of homework, and easy examinations. Brooks says, “Nowhere did I find anybody who seriously considered living any other way.”  This demonstrates that these students see college as the first step to their career success and this is why they live these lifestyles. College is about self-improvement, resume-building and enrichment and these students take that to the extreme.

In the end, their efforts pay off. “Investment banks flood the campus looking for hires. Princeton also offers a multitude of post-graduation service jobs in places like China and Africa” (Brooks). The strategy of these students is to work hard, behave pleasantly, explore their interests, volunteer their time, obey the codes of political correctness and ascend the social hierarchy (Brooks).

Source:

Brooks, David. "The Organization Kid." The Atlantic Monthly (2001): 40-54. Print.