Thursday, April 12, 2012

Cognitive Biases


Cognitive biases are present in our daily lives. Last Thursday my boyfriend came to Shippensburg to visit me. We decided that we would go out to eat with two other couples. When we were deciding where we wanted to go, he said that he didn't want to go to a hibachi restaurant because we ate there last time. We then considered italian and seafood restaurants, but we would have to travel further and possibly make reservations. We considered going to Italian Village becuase its BYOB and located between Shippensburg and Chambersburg. We decided against this because we dind't know how well they could handle a group of 6. Eventually, we decided that the Shippensburg hibachi restaurant would be best afterall. When I texted our friends to tell them the place and time, I suffered from primacy effect remembering that we weren't doing hibachi because we did that last time, and I told them 6:30 at Italian Village. When I read the sent text to my boyfriend he caught the mistake and I quickly had to call everyone and correct my mistake. My memory was clouded by the information presented earlier (that we weren't going for hibachi because we did that last time).

On our way to the hibachi restaurant, a car from the other lane swirved and almost hit our car. My boyfriend said, "Of course, it's a woman driver." This incident confirmed his bias thinking that women are bad drivers. To him, this is an emotionally charged issue because he has been in numerous car accidents with women where they are at fault, and this incident confirmed his prior beliefs.

As we got out of the car and walked toward the door of the restaurant I said, "Last time we were here, I saw a lot of people that I know from work. I bet I'll see people from work again." When I said this, I suffered from the availability heuristic, presumed assumptions. I have overestimated the probability that these two events will co-occur again.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Politics and Decision Making


I think that Romney and Santorum thought that in order to win the Republican vote, they needed to have beliefs that are exactly the opposite of the Democratic party. Since Obama made a clear stance on higher education, these Republican candidates were so used to taking a stance in the opposite direction, and in turn, the decision was made using system one thinking. 

However, I don’t think that this was a rational decision because they didn’t seem to consider the possible options and consequences of each option. These candidates failed to realize that federal aid to education is supported by both political parties. In order to win the Republican vote, both candidates should have determined their options (for a stance on higher education) and possible outcomes for each (levels of voter support). Then they should assign values and probabilities to each outcome, calculate the expected value of each option and then determine which option to choose based on the highest expected value. I think that if they would have went through a rational decision making process, they would have determined that taking a different stance on higher education would have been the better decision.

Monday, April 2, 2012

Afghan War (redone)



As far as casualties, the expected value of the USA leaving Afghanistan is higher than the expected value of the USA staying in Afghanistan. Therefore, according to my analysis and perceived values and probabilities, it would be more beneficial for the USA to leave Afghanistan.